Scientific
publications

BACKGROUND: Previous analyses of risk factors for glucocorticoid (GC)-induced osteoporosis have focused on the estimation of relative rather than absolute fracture probability. AIM: To estimate risk scores for the individual probability of fracture in GC users. DESIGN: Retrospective data analysis. METHODS: We evaluated all patients aged 40 years or older with a prescription for oral GCs in the General Practice Research Database (GPRD), which comprises the computerized medical records of around 7 million UK subjects. Individual risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were identified, and combined in a predictive model for 10-year absolute fracture risk. RESULTS: Of 191 752 oral GC users aged > or =40 years, 7412 experienced an osteoporotic fracture. Several characteristics independently contributed to the fracture risk score (GC therapy, age, gender, fall history, fracture history, body mass index, smoking, previous diagnoses, use of medication, recent hospitalization and indication for GC treatment). Scores of 30, 40 and 50 corresponded to absolute 5-year fracture risks of 6.2%, 15.3% and 35.2%, respectively. A woman aged 65 years with RA, low BMI, and a previous history of fracture and falls, who used 15 mg GC daily (total risk score 54) would have a 5-year fracture risk of 47% (a man with similar history, 30.1%). Short-term use of high-dose GC therapy (> or =30 mg) was associated with only a small increased risk of osteoporotic fracture (RR 1.21, 95%CI 1.04-1.42) in patients with a history of GC use. DISCUSSION: This risk score helps to predict an individual's risk of fracture during GC use. Decisions about bone protection treatment could be based on long-term risks of fracture.

OBJECTIVES: To build and test a model for the collection of computerised retrospective primary care data from the UK, and to assess its quality for use in medical and pharmaceutical research. DESIGN: Collection and evaluation of sampled retrospective general practice data recording. SETTING: General practices, using the Vision practice management software in the UK. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Quality indicators of completeness of data recording. RESULTS: Initial audit of 236 practices indicated good recording of prescribing in all practices and a high level of completeness of recording of clinical information in many of the practices. CONCLUSIONS: In the group of practices studied, levels of recording were generally assessed to be of sufficient quality to enable a database of quality-evaluated, anonymised primary care records to be created.