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BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is a common diagnosis in general practice in the United Kingdom. Previous studies suggest that commonly prescribed drugs in general practice may influence pneumonia mortality. AIM: We investigated whether statins, angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors (ACEIs), proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) and histamine-2-receptor antagonists (H(2)RAs) have an impact on short-term and long-term mortality in pneumonia cases. DESIGN OF STUDY: Population-based cohort study SETTTING: United Kingdom METHODS: Data on 3681 pneumonia cases above the age of 40 years were obtained from a comprehensive database called the health improvement network (THIN) which has computerised medical records from 300 general practice surgeries in the United Kingdom. We used Cox regression for our analyses. RESULTS: Current statin use was associated with a 67% decrease in 30-day mortality (adj. HR: 0.33, 95% CI: 0.19-0.58) and a 55% decrease in long-term mortality (adj. HR: 0.45, 95% CI: 0.32-0.62) over a median follow-up of 2.8 years as compared to no-use. Current ACEI use decreased the 30-day mortality risk by nearly 38% as compared to no-use (adj. HR: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.47-0.82) but was not associated with long-term mortality. No significant impact on mortality was observed for either gastric acid suppressant. CONCLUSION: The use of statins is associated with a lower risk of short- and long-term mortality following pneumonia whereas the use of ACEIs is associated with a decreased mortality risk only in the short-term.
BACKGROUND: Despite the role of primary care in the falls care pathway, there are almost no data on the extent of falls seen in general practices. AIM: To quantify the incidence and mortality of falls amongst older people in primary care in the UK. METHODS: Cohort study of people aged >or=60 years and registered in a UK practice contributing data to The Health Improvement Network primary care database (THIN) throughout 2003-06. Analysis of crude incidence and estimation of incidence rate ratios using negative binomial regression, and survival using Cox regression. Sensitivity analysis of criteria for distinguishing discrete fall events from follow-up appointments. RESULTS: Amongst people aged >or=60 years the overall crude incidence rate of recorded falls was 3.58/100 person-years (95% CI 3.56-3.61). The rate of recurrent falls was 0.67/100 person-years (95% CI 0.66-0.68). The incidence rate of recorded falls and recurrent falls was higher in older age groups, in women and least advantaged social groups. Incidence of recorded falls was constant through the time period 2003-06. Mortality for recurrent fallers was about twice that of general population controls. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that more than 475,000 fall events in older people are recorded in general practice each year in the UK, and are associated with increased mortality and relative deprivation. The underlying incidence rate has remained stable in recent years.
BACKGROUND: Influenza and pneumococcal vaccination are recommended in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). A recent study from Tayside found a reduced risk of all-cause mortality with vaccination in patients with COPD. The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database was used to test this hypothesis in a different data source. METHODS: The THIN database was searched for patients with COPD. Vaccination status against Pneumococcus and the annual influenza vaccination status were determined. Mortality rates were calculated in the periods December to March and April to November. Relative risks for the effect of vaccination on all-cause mortality were estimated by Poisson regression, adjusting for age, sex, year and serious co-morbidities. RESULTS: 177,120 patients with COPD (mean age 65 years) were identified, with a mean follow-up of 6.8 years between 1988 and 2006. Vaccination rates against influenza rose from <30% before 1995 to >70% in 2005 in patients aged 60 years or more. The cumulative vaccination rate against pneumonia rose from almost zero to 70% in patients aged 70 years or more over the same period. For all-cause mortality the adjusted relative risks associated with influenza vaccination were 0.59 (95% CI 0.57 to 0.61) during the influenza season and 0.97 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.00) outside the season in patients not vaccinated against pneumonia, and 0.30 (95% CI 0.28 to 0.32) and 0.98 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.11), respectively, in patients vaccinated against pneumonia. The relative risk associated with pneumococcal vaccination was >1 at all times of the year. CONCLUSIONS: Influenza but not pneumococcal vaccination was associated with a reduced risk of all-cause mortality in COPD.
BACKGROUND: The acute and chronic leukaemias constitute about 2.5% of all newly diagnosed malignancies and kill over 4000 people/year in the UK, yet there is little accurate up-to-date data on how the incidence of and mortality from leukaemias vary with socio-economic status in the UK. We aimed to quantify the incidence of and mortality from leukaemias in the UK and their variation with gender, age, year of diagnosis as well as socio-economic status. METHODS: All incident cases of leukaemia were identified in 'The Health Improvement Network' (THIN) General Practice dataset. Crude incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (using Poisson Regression) stratified by age, gender, year of diagnosis and socio-economic status were calculated. Median survival and hazard ratios for risk of death (using Cox regression) were then calculated, and stratified in a similar manner. RESULTS: A total of 4162 cases of leukaemia were identified, 2314 (56%) of whom were male. The overall incidence of leukaemia was 11.25 per 100,000 person-years. The age and gender distributions of ALL, AML, CLL and CML were similar to UK cancer registry data. The incidence of leukaemias was independent of socio-economic class. Median survival from leukaemia was 6.58 years and mortality increased with increasing age at diagnosis. The prognosis in AML was dismal and worsened with increasing socio-economic deprivation. For other leukaemias mortality was independent of socio-economic status. CONCLUSION: This is the first general population study to describe the incidence of and mortality from leukaemias in the UK by socio-economic status. Similar mortality across socio-economic gradients in the leukaemias studied suggests equal access to and uptake of services. The exception to this was in AML, where poorer survival in AML patients from lower socio-economic classes may represent a class bias in treatment offered and/or greater co-morbidity in these patients, and warrants further exploration.
INTRODUCTION: Studies suggest no benefit from statins in heart failure (HF), but many individuals in primary care are prescribed statins before HF diagnosis. This study aimed to assess the effect of a statin prescription prior to HF diagnosis on survival in an incident HF population. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Cases of HF diagnosed between 1995 and 2004 in 315 UK primary care practices were identified from electronic case records and followed up for 2 years from diagnosis. Statin prescribing before and after HF diagnosis was assessed, and Cox regression was used to determine the contribution of statin treatment to survival. RESULTS: A total of 10,914 cases met the inclusion criteria of whom 20% (2185/10,914) were treated with a statin prior to HF diagnosis. Two per cent (191/8729) had an initial statin prescription following diagnosis. Cases prescribed a statin before heart failure diagnosis had a lower risk of death in the subsequent 2 years (hazard ratio 0.52; 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.68), after adjustment for confounders. DISCUSSION: Most people with heart failure prescribed statins in primary care commenced them prior to diagnosis and appeared to gain benefit, presumably through the effect of statins on cardiovascular co-morbidities. Primary care physicians should not discontinue prior statin treatment at the time of heart failure diagnosis.
OBJECTIVE: To independently evaluate the performance of the QRISK score for predicting 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in an independent UK cohort of patients from general practice and compare the performance with Framingham equations. DESIGN: Prospective open cohort study. SETTING: 274 practices from England and Wales contributing to the THIN database. PARTICIPANTS: 1.07 million patients, registered between 1 January 1995 and 1 April 2006, aged 35-74 years (5.4 million person years) with 43 990 cardiovascular events. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: First diagnosis of cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke, and transient ischaemic attack) recorded in general practice records. RESULTS: This independent validation indicated that QRISK offers an improved performance in predicting the 10 year risk of cardiovascular disease in a large cohort of UK patients over the Anderson Framingham equation. Discrimination and calibration statistics were better with QRISK. QRISK explained 32% of the variation in men and 37% in women, compared with 27% and 31% respectively for Anderson Framingham. QRISK underpredicted risk by 13% for men and 10% for women, whereas Anderson Framingham overpredicted risk by 32% for men and 10% for women. In total, 85 010 (8%) of patients would be reclassified from high risk (>or=20%) with Anderson Framingham to low risk with QRISK, with an observed 10 year cardiovascular disease risk of 17.5% (95% confidence interval 16.9% to 18.1%) for men and 16.8% (15.7% to 18.0%) for women. The incidence rate of cardiovascular disease events among men was 30.5 per 1000 person years (95% confidence interval 29.9 to 31.2) in high risk patients identified with QRISK and 23.7 per 1000 person years (23.2 to 24.1) in high risk patients identified with Anderson Framingham. Similarly, the incidence rate of cardiovascular disease events among women was 26.7 per 1000 person years (25.8 to 27.7) in high risk patients identified with QRISK compared with 22.2 per 1000 person years (21.4 to 23.0) in high risk patients identified with Anderson Framingham. CONCLUSIONS: The QRISK cardiovascular disease risk equation offers an improvement over the long established Anderson Framingham equation in terms of identifying a high risk population for cardiovascular disease in the United Kingdom. QRISK underestimates 10 year cardiovascular disease risk, but the magnitude of underprediction is smaller than the overprediction with Anderson Framingham.
BACKGROUND: The aetiology of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis remains poorly understood, but recent studies have suggested that diabetes mellitus and gastro-oesophageal reflux may be risk factors. OBJECTIVE: To test possible associations between diabetes mellitus and gastro-oesophageal reflux with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis in the general population. METHODS: We designed a case-control study in the setting of UK general practices contributing data to The Health Improvement Network primary care database (THIN). We selected patients over 40 years of age with a first diagnosis of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, and up to 4 controls per case matched by age, gender, and general practice. We estimated odds ratios for exposure to gastro-oesophageal reflux, gout, hypercholesterolaemia and diabetes mellitus using conditional logistic regression. We explored the role of confounding by smoking habit, socio-economic status, and medication with prednisolone. RESULTS: Amongst our 920 cases we found increased risks of use of insulin (odds ratio (OR) 2.36; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.46-3.83) and use of ulcer drugs (OR 2.20; 95% CI 1.88-2.58). These were almost unchanged when we excluded cases and controls who had been prescribed prednisolone. We found no association with hypercholesterolaemia or gout, nor with smoking status or socio-economic status. CONCLUSIONS: The study provides further evidence of an association between idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and both diabetes mellitus and gastro-oesophageal reflux.
Despite being widely recognized as a significant public health problem there are surprisingly few contemporary data available on the incidence of pneumonia in the UK. We conducted a general population-based cohort study to determine the incidence of pneumonia in general practice in the United Kingdom. Data were obtained from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) - a computerized, longitudinal, general practice database. Recorded diagnoses of pneumonia between 1991 and 2003 were used to calculate the incidence of pneumonia stratified by year, sex, age group and deprivation score. The overall incidence of pneumonia was 233/100 000 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 231-235] and this rate was stable between 1991 and 2003. The incidence of pneumonia was slightly lower in females compared to males [age-adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.88, 95% CI 0.86-0.89]. Pneumonia was most common in children aged <4 years and adults aged >65 years. There was an increased incidence of pneumonia with higher levels of socioeconomic disadvantage such that people living in the most deprived areas of the United Kingdom were 28% more likely to get pneumonia than those in the least deprived areas (age- and gender-adjusted IRR 1.28, 95% CI 1.24-1.32). In conclusion, pneumonia is an important public health problem and the incidence of pneumonia is higher in people at the extremes of age, men and people living in socially deprived areas.
BACKGROUND: Atopic dermatitis (AD) has been associated with an increased risk of lymphoma. OBJECTIVES: To assess the risk of lymphoma associated with AD and use of topical corticosteroids (TCS) or topical calcineurin inhibitors (TCI) in a database allowing medical record validation. METHODS: We conducted a nested-case control study using the United Kingdom-based The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database. We excluded patients with established risk factors for lymphoma. Cases of lymphoma were identified and classified after review of the medical records and hospital discharge files. RESULTS: In the study population of 3,500,194 individuals, we identified 2738 cases of lymphoma (1722 non-Hodgkin lymphoma [NHL], 466 Hodgkin disease, 550 indeterminate cases; overall, 188 had cutaneous involvement) and 10,949 matched controls. AD was associated with an increased lymphoma risk (odds ratio [OR], 1.83; 95% CI, 1.41-2.36). In patients with AD referred to a dermatologist, the OR further increased (OR, 3.72; 95% CI, 1.40-9.87). We did not find any cases of lymphoma in TCI users; however, the number of patients exposed to TCI was insufficient to study any possible association between lymphoma and these drugs. TCS use was associated with an increased lymphoma risk (OR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.33-1.61). The risk increase was dependent on TCS potency (OR for high-potency TCS, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.54-2.11). The increased risk involved both Hodgkin disease and NHL, especially NHL with skin involvement (OR for high-potency TCS, 26.24; 95% CI, 13.49-51.07). CONCLUSION: Our results show an association between lymphoma-especially skin lymphoma-and use of TCS. The risk increased with duration of exposure and potency of TCS.
PURPOSE: Previous studies have shown that treatment with gastric acid suppressants may be associated with an increased risk of pneumonia whilst the use of statins and ACE inhibitors (ACEI) may decrease the risk of acquiring pneumonia. The evidence is conflicting however. Our aim was to investigate the effect of these drugs on pneumonia using population-based data from the UK. METHODS: We conducted a general population-based case-control study using the health improvement network (THIN), a comprehensive UK general practice database. Conditional multiple logistic regression was used to assess the association between the exposures and pneumonia. RESULTS: After adjusting for potential confounders, a current prescription for statins was associated with a significant reduction in the risk of pneumonia (adjusted OR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65-0.94). Similarly, a current prescription for ACEI was associated with a reduction in the risk of pneumonia (adjusted OR 0.75, 95% CI 0.65-0.86). Contrary to previous study results we did not find a significant association between current prescription for histamine 2 receptor antagonist (H(2)RA) and pneumonia risk (adjusted OR 1.14, 95% CI 0.92-1.40) but current prescriptions for proton pump inhibitors (PPI) were associated with an increased risk of pneumonia (adjusted OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.38-1.77). CONCLUSIONS: Statins and ACE inhibitors were associated with a lower risk of pneumonia but these effects were smaller than those observed in previous studies. People prescribed a PPI, but not an H(2)RA at an increased risk of acquiring pneumonia.
BACKGROUND: To estimate the incidence and prevalence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in the UK general population from 1996 to 2005. METHODS: Using the Health Improvement Network database, patients with type 1 or type 2 diabetes were identified who were 10-79 years old between 1996 and 2005. Prevalent cases (n = 49 999) were separated from incident cases (n = 42 642; type 1 = 1256, type 2 = 41 386). Data were collected on treatment patterns in incident cases, and on body mass index in prevalent and incident cases. RESULTS: Diabetes prevalence increased from 2.8% in 1996 to 4.3% in 2005. The incidence of diabetes in the UK increased from 2.71 (2.58-2.85)/1000 person-years in 1996 to 4.42 (4.32-4.53)/1000 person-years in 2005. The incidence of type 1 diabetes remained relatively constant throughout the study period; however, the incidence of type 2 diabetes increased from 2.60 (2.47-2.74)/1000 person-years in 1996 to 4.31 (4.21-4.42)/1000 person-years in 2005. Between 1996 and 2005, the proportion of individuals newly diagnosed with type 2 diabetes who were obese increased from 46% to 56%. Treatment with metformin increased across the study period, while treatment with sulphonylureas decreased. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence and incidence of type 2 diabetes have increased in the UK over the past decade. This might be primarily explained by the changes in obesity prevalence. Also, there was a change in drug treatment pattern from sulphonylureas to metformin.
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer is generally diagnosed following a symptomatic presentation to primary care. Although the presenting features of the cancer are well described, the risks they convey are less well known. This study aimed to quantify the risk of cancer for different symptoms, across age groups and in both sexes. METHODS: This was a case-control study using pre-existing records in a large electronic primary care database. Cases were patients aged 30 years or older with a diagnosis of colorectal cancer between January 2001 and July 2006, matched to seven controls by age, sex and practice. All features of colorectal cancer recorded in the 2 years before diagnosis were identified. Features independently associated with cancer were identified using multivariable conditional logistic regression, and their risk of cancer quantified. RESULTS: We identified 5477 cases, with 38,314 age, sex and practice-matched controls. Six symptoms and two abnormal investigations (anaemia and microcytosis) were independently associated with colorectal cancer. The positive predictive values of symptoms were: rectal bleeding, positive predictive value for a male aged > or = 80 years 4.5% (95% confidence interval 3.5, 5.9); change in bowel habit 3.9% (2.8, 5.5); weight loss 0.8% (0.5, 1.3); abdominal pain 1.2% (1.0, 1.4); diarrhoea 1.2% (1.0, 1.5) and constipation 0.7% (0.6, 0.8). Positive predictive values were lower in females and younger patients. Only 27% of patients had reported either of the two higher risk symptoms. CONCLUSION: Most symptomatic colorectal cancers present with only a low-risk symptom. There is a need to find a method of identifying those at highest risk of cancer from the large number presenting with such symptoms.
OBJECTIVES: To determine the extent to which secondary drug prevention for patients with stroke in routine primary care varies by sex, age, and socioeconomic circumstances, and to quantify the effect of secondary drug prevention on one year mortality by sociodemographic group. DESIGN: Cohort study using individual patient data from the health improvement network primary care database. SETTING: England. PARTICIPANTS: 12 830 patients aged 50 or more years from 113 general practices who had a stroke between 1995 and 2005 and who survived the first 30 days after the stroke. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Multivariable associations between odds of receiving secondary prevention after a stroke, and sex, age group, and socioeconomic circumstances; hazard ratios for all cause mortality from 31 days after the stroke and within the first year among patients receiving treatment and by social group; and probabilities of one year mortality for social factors of interest and treatment. RESULTS: Only 25.6% of men and 20.8% of women received secondary prevention. Receipt of secondary prevention did not vary by socioeconomic circumstances or by sex. Older patients were, however, substantially less likely to receive treatment. The adjusted odds ratio for 80-89 year olds compared with 50-59 year olds was 0.53 (95% confidence interval 0.41 to 0.69). This was because older people were less likely to receive lipid lowering drugs-for example, the adjusted odds ratio for 80-89 year olds compared with 50-59 year olds was 0.44 (95% confidence interval 0.33 to 0.59). Secondary prevention was associated with a 50% reduction in mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 0.50, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 59). On average, mortality within the first year was 5.7% for patients receiving treatment compared with 11.1% for patients not receiving treatment. There was little evidence that the effect of treatment differed between the social groups examined. CONCLUSION: Under-treatment among older people with stroke in routine primary care cannot be justified given the lack of evidence on variations in effectiveness of treatment by age.
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