Publications
scientifiques

BACKGROUND: Estimations of Lyme disease incidence rates in the United Kingdom vary. There is evidence that this disease is associated with fatigue in its early stage but reports are contradictory as far as long-term fatigue is concerned. METHODS AND FINDINGS: A population-based historical cohort study was conducted on patients treated in general practices contributing to IQVIA Medical Research Data: 2,130 patients with a first diagnosis of Lyme disease between 2000 and 2018 and 8,510 randomly-sampled patients matched by age, sex, and general practice, followed-up for a median time of 3 years and 8 months. Main outcome measure was time to consultation for (1) any fatigue-related symptoms or diagnosis; or (2) myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS). Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated from Cox models. Average incidence rate for Lyme disease across the UK was 5.18 per 100,000 person-years, increasing from 2.55 in 2000 to 9.33 in 2018. In total, 929 events of any types of fatigue were observed, leading to an incidence rate of 307.90 per 10,000 person-years in the Lyme cohort (282 events) and 165.60 in the comparator cohort (647 events). Effect of Lyme disease on any subsequent fatigue varied by index season: adjusted HRs were the highest in autumn and winter with 3.14 (95%CI: 1.92-5.13) and 2.23 (1.21-4.11), respectively. For ME/CFS, 17 events were observed in total. Incidence rates were 11.76 per 10,000 person-years in Lyme patients (12 events) and 1.20 in comparators (5 events), corresponding to an adjusted HR of 16.95 (5.17-55.60). Effects were attenuated 6 months after diagnosis but still clearly visible. CONCLUSIONS: UK primary care records provided strong evidence that Lyme disease was associated with subsequent fatigue and ME/CFS. Albeit weaker on the long-term, these effects persisted beyond 6 months, suggesting patients and healthcare providers should remain alert to fatigue symptoms months to years following Lyme disease diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: The identification of modifiable risk factors for Alzheimer's disease is paramount for early prevention and the targeting of new interventions. We aimed to assess the associations between health conditions diagnosed in primary care and the risk of incident Alzheimer's disease over time, up to 15 years before a first Alzheimer's disease diagnosis. METHODS: In this agnostic study of French and British health records, data from 20 214 patients with Alzheimer's disease in the UK and 19 458 patients with Alzheimer's disease in France were extracted from The Health Improvement Network database. We considered data recorded from Jan 1, 1996, to March 31, 2020 in the UK and from Jan 4, 1998, to Feb 20, 2019, in France. For each Alzheimer's disease case, a control was randomly assigned after matching for sex and age at last visit. We agnostically tested the associations between 123 different diagnoses of the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, extracted from health records, and Alzheimer's disease, by running a conditional logistic regression to account for matching of cases and controls. We focused on three time periods before diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease, to separate risk factors from early symptoms and comorbidities. FINDINGS: Unadjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% CIs for the association between Alzheimer's disease and various health conditions were estimated, and p values were corrected for multiple comparisons. In both the British and French studies, ten health conditions were significantly positively associated with increased Alzheimer's disease risk, in a window of exposure from 2-10 years before Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, comprising major depressive disorder (UK OR 1·34, 95% CI 1·23-1·46; France OR 1·73, 1·57-1·91), anxiety (UK OR 1·36, 1·25-1·47; France OR 1·50, 1·36-1·65), reaction to severe stress and adjustment disorders (UK OR 1·40, 1·24-1·59; France OR 1·83, 1·55-2·15), hearing loss (UK OR 1·19, 1·11-1·28; France OR 1·51, 1·21-1·89), constipation (UK OR 1·31, 1·22-1·41; France OR 1·59, 1·44-1·75), spondylosis (UK OR 1·26, 1·14-1·39; France OR 1·62, 1·44-1·81), abnormal weight loss (UK OR 1·47, 1·33-1·63; France OR 1·88, 1·56-2·26), malaise and fatigue (UK OR 1·23, 1·14-1·32; France OR 1·59, 1·46-1·73), memory loss (UK OR 7·63, 6·65-8·76; France OR 4·41, 3·07-6·34), and syncope and collapse (UK OR 1·23, 1·10-1·37; France OR 1·57, 1·26-1·96). Depression was the first comorbid condition associated with Alzheimer's disease, appearing at least 9 years before the first clinical diagnosis, followed by anxiety, constipation, and abnormal weight loss. INTERPRETATION: These results from two independent primary care databases provide new evidence on the temporality of risk factors and early signs of Alzheimer's disease that are observable at the general practitioner level. These results could guide the implementation of new primary and secondary prevention policies. FUNDING: Agence Nationale de la Recherche.

Parkinson's disease (PD) has the fastest rising prevalence of all neurodegenerative diseases worldwide. However, it is unclear whether its incidence has increased after accounting for age and changes in diagnostic patterns in the same population. We conducted a cohort study in individuals aged ≥50 years within a large UK primary care database between January 2006 and December 2016. To account for possible changes in diagnostic patterns, we calculated the incidence of PD using four case definitions with different stringency derived from the combination of PD diagnosis, symptoms, and treatment. Using the broadest case definition, the incidence rate (IR) per 100,000 person years at risk (PYAR) was 149 (95% CI 143.3-155.4) in 2006 and 144 (95% CI 136.9-150.7) in 2016. In conclusion, the incidence of PD in the UK remained stable between 2006 and 2016, when accounting for age and diagnostic patterns, suggesting no major change in underlying risk factors for PD during this time period in the UK.

Metformin is hypothesized to protect against the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE); however, there is a paucity of data supporting this hypothesis. Among individuals aged 40-90 years with a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes in the Health Improvement Network database (2000-2019), we compared the risks of incident VTE, pulmonary embolism, and deep vein thrombosis among metformin initiators with those among sulfonylurea initiators. Individuals were followed from their first prescription refill to an incident VTE, drug discontinuation, switching or augmenting, plan disenrollment, or the end of the study, whichever occurred first. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using the Cox model, adjusting for confounders using inverse probability of treatment weighting. Among 117,472 initiators of metformin and 13,835 initiators of sulfonylureas, 555 (1.3/1,000 person-years) and 75 (2.1/1,000 person-years) VTE cases occurred in each group, respectively. The multivariable-adjusted HR was 0.65 (95% CI: 0.51, 0.84). The corresponding risks for pulmonary embolism (adjusted HR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.50, 1.01) and deep vein thrombosis (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.48, 0.87) were also lower in metformin initiators than in sulfonylurea initiators. Our study provided empirical evidence to support a lower risk of VTE after initiation of metformin as compared with sulfonylureas among patients with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVES: To explore population patterns of sex-based incidence and prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD), guideline-directed best medical therapy prescriptions and its relationship with all-cause mortality at 1 year. DESIGN: A retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Anonymised electronic primary care from 787 practices in the UK, or approximately 6.2% of the UK population. PARTICIPANTS: All registered patients over 40 with a documented diagnosis of peripheral arterial disease. OUTCOME MEASURE: Population incidence and prevalence of PAD by sex. Patterns of guideline-directed therapy, and correlation with all-cause mortality at 1 year (defined as death due to any outcome) in patients with and without an existing diagnosis of cardiovascular disease. Covariates included Charlson comorbidity, sex, age, body mass index, Townsend score of deprivation, smoking status, diabetes, hypertension, statin and antiplatelet prescription. RESULTS: Sequential cross-sectional studies from 2010 to 2017 found annual PAD prevalence (12.7-14.3 vs 25.6 per 1000 in men) and incidence were lower in women (11.6-12.4 vs 22.7-26.8 per 10 000 person years in men). Cox proportional hazards models created for PAD patients with and without cardiovascular disease over one full year analysed 25 121 men and 13 480 women, finding that following adjustment for age, women were still less likely to be on a statin (OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.72; p<0.001) or antiplatelet (OR: 0.87; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.90; p<0.001). Once fully adjusted for guideline recommended medical therapy, all-cause mortality was similar between women and men (adjusted HR (aHR) 0.95, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.03, p=0.198 for all patients, aHR 1.01, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.16, p=0.860 for those with cardiovascular disease). CONCLUSIONS: Women with a new diagnosis of PAD were not prescribed guideline-directed therapy at the same rate as men. However once adjusted for factors including age, all-cause mortality in men and women was similar.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to develop cost-effective weight loss maintenance interventions to prolong the positive impact of weight loss on health outcomes. Conducting pre-trial health economic modelling is recommended to inform the design and development of behavioural interventions. We aimed to use health economic modelling to estimate the maximum cost per-person (justifiable cost) of a cost-effective behavioural weight loss maintenance intervention, given an estimated intervention effect for individuals with: i) a Body Mass Index (BMI) of 28 kg/m or above without diabetes and ii) a diagnosis of type 2 diabetes prescribed a single non-insulin diabetes medication. METHODS: The School for Public Health Research Diabetes prevention model was used to estimate the lifetime Quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gains, healthcare costs, and maximum justifiable cost associated with a weight loss maintenance intervention. Based on a meta-analysis, the estimated effect of a weight loss maintenance intervention following a 9 kg weight loss, was a regain of 1.33 kg and 4.38 kg in years one and two respectively compared to greater regain of 2.84 kg and 5.6 kg in the control group. Sensitivity analysis was conducted around the rate of regain, duration of effect and initial weight loss. RESULTS: The justifiable cost for a weight loss maintenance intervention at an ICER of £20,000 per QALY was £104.64 for an individual with a BMI of 28 or over and £88.14 for an individual with type 2 diabetes. Within sensitivity analysis, this varied from £36.42 to £203.77 for the former, and between £29.98 and £173.05 for the latter. CONCLUSIONS: Researchers developing a weight loss maintenance intervention should consider these maximum justifiable cost estimates and the potential impact of the duration of effect and initial weight loss when designing intervention content and deciding target populations. Future research should consider using the methods demonstrated in this study to use health economic modelling to inform the design and budgetary decisions in the development of a behavioural interventions.

BACKGROUND: Cohort studies are among the most robust of observational studies but have issues with external validity. This study assesses threats to external validity (generalizability) in the European QUALity (EQUAL) study, a cohort study of people >65 years of age with Stage 4/5 chronic kidney disease. METHODS: Patients meeting the EQUAL inclusion criteria were identified in The Health Improvement Network database and stratified into those attending renal units, a secondary care cohort (SCC) and a not primary care cohort (PCC). Survival, progression to renal replacement therapy (RRT) and hospitalization were compared. RESULTS: The analysis included 250, 633 and 2464 patients in EQUAL, PCC and SCC. EQUAL had a higher proportion of men compared with PCC and SCC (60.0% versus 34.8% versus 51.4%). Increasing age ≥85 years {odds ratio [OR] 0.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15-0.40]} and comorbidity [Charlson Comorbidity Index ≥4, OR 0.69 (95% CI 0.52-0.91)] were associated with non-participation in EQUAL. EQUAL had a higher proportion of patients starting RRT at 1 year compared with SCC (8.1% versus 2.1%; P < 0.001). Patients in the PCC and SCC had increased risk of hospitalization [incidence rate ratio 1.76 (95% CI 1.27-2.47) and 2.13 (95% CI 1.59-2.86)] and mortality at 1 year [hazard ratio 3.48 (95% CI 2.1-5.7) and 1.7 (95% CI 1.1-2.7)] compared with EQUAL. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides evidence of how participants in a cohort study can differ from the broader population of patients, which is essential when considering external validity and application to local practice.

BACKGROUND: How contraceptive formulation, dose, duration of therapy and mode of delivery affects the risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is poorly described. AIM: To examine associations between types of hormonal contraception and development of IBD. METHODS: This was a nested case-control study using IQVIA Medical Research Data. Women aged 15-49 years with a new diagnosis of IBD were matched with up to six controls by age, practice and year. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for incident IBD and use of contraception were calculated. RESULTS: 4932 incident cases of IBD were matched to 29 340 controls. Use of combined oral contraceptive pills (COCPs) was associated with the development of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis (OR 1.60 [1.41-1.82] and 1.30 [1.15-1.45], respectively). Each additional month of COCP exposure per year of follow-up increased risk of Crohn's disease by 6.4% (5.1%-7.7%) and ulcerative colitis by 3.3% (2.1%-4.4%). Progestogen-only pills had no effect on Crohn's disease risk (OR 1.09 [0.84-1.40]) but there was a modest association with ulcerative colitis (OR 1.35 [1.12-1.64]). Parenteral contraception was not associated with the development of Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis (OR 1.15 [0.99-1.47] and 1.17 [0.98-1.39], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: We observed an increase in the risk of IBD with increasing duration of exposure to COCPs. Progestogen-only pills were not associated with Crohn's disease but there was a modest association with ulcerative colitis. There was no association between parenteral progestogen-only contraception and IBD. These findings are broadly consistent with a hypothesis that the oestrogen component of contraception may drive IBD pathogenesis.

BACKGROUND: Most antibiotics are prescribed in primary care. Locum or sessional GPs (locums) are perceived as contributing to higher prescribing and may face barriers to engaging with antimicrobial stewardship (AMS). AIM: To identify how locums' antibiotic prescribing compares with other general practice prescribers, and how they perceive their role in antibiotic prescribing and AMS. DESIGN AND SETTING: Mixed-methods study in primary care. METHOD: Data on antibiotic prescribing, diagnoses, and patient and prescriber characteristics were extracted from The Health Improvement Network database. A mixed-effects logistic model was used to compare locums' and other prescribers' antibiotic prescribing for conditions that do not usually benefit from antibiotics. Nineteen semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted with locums in England and analysed thematically. RESULTS: Locums accounted for 11% of consultations analysed. They prescribed antibiotics more often than other GPs and nurse prescribers for acute cough, sore throat, asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations, and acute bronchitis. The number of patients receiving antibiotics for these conditions was 4% higher (on absolute scale) when consulting with locums compared with when they consulted with other GPs. Four themes capture the perceived influences on prescribing antibiotics and AMS: antibiotic prescribing as a complex but individual issue, nature and patterns of locum work, relationships between practices and locums, and professional isolation. CONCLUSION: Locums contribute to higher antibiotic prescribing compared with their peers. They experience challenges but also opportunities for contributing to AMS, which should be better addressed. With an increasing proportion of locums in general practice, they have an important role in antibiotic optimisation and AMS.

BACKGROUND: A two-phase 'respiratory symptoms' mass media campaign was conducted in 2016 and 2017 in England raising awareness of cough and worsening shortness of breath as symptoms warranting a general practitioner (GP) visit. METHOD: A prospectively planned pre-post evaluation was done using routinely collected data on 15 metrics, including GP attendance, GP referral, emergency presentations, cancers diagnosed (five metrics), cancer stage, investigations (two metrics), outpatient attendances, inpatient admissions, major lung resections and 1-year survival. The primary analysis compared 2015 with 2017. Trends in metrics over the whole period were also considered. The effects of the campaign on awareness of lung cancer symptoms were evaluated using bespoke surveys. RESULTS: There were small favourable statistically significant and clinically important changes over 2 years in 11 of the 15 metrics measured, including a 2.11% (95% confidence interval 1.02-3.20, p < 0.001) improvement in the percentage of lung cancers diagnosed at an early stage. However, these changes were not accompanied by increases in GP attendances. Furthermore, the time trends showed a gradual change in the metrics rather than steep changes occurring during or after the campaigns. CONCLUSION: There were small positive changes in most metrics relating to lung cancer diagnosis after this campaign. However, the pattern over time challenges whether the improvements are wholly attributable to the campaign. Given the importance of education on cancer in its own right, raising awareness of symptoms should remain important. However further research is needed to maximise the effect on health outcomes.

INTRODUCTION: Data regarding immediate-release (IR)-tramadol exposures in children remain sparse. We aimed to investigate the incidence of IR-tramadol exposures in ≤6-year-old children, to describe the characteristics and resulting outcome of ingestions involving IR-tramadol alone, and to estimate a clinically relevant toxic dose in this population. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of IR-tramadol exposures in ≤6-year-old children, collected by the French Poison Control Centers (PCCs) in 2003-2019. The incidence was estimated using IR-tramadol prescription data from the Health Improvement Network database (the French version of THIN). The Poison severity score (PSS) was used to grade severity. RESULTS: We found 1260 IR-tramadol exposures in ≤6-year-old children. The number of cases per 100,000 IR-tramadol-treated patients increased over time (  < .0001). One hundred forty-five cases involving IR-tramadol alone were analyzed. The median age was 3.0 years (IQR: 1.9, 4.0), the M/F ratio was 1.5 and the median dose was 5.0 mg/kg (IQR 3.3-11.1). Half of the children (49.7%) remained asymptomatic (PSS0) while 29.6% and 14.5% developed minor (PSS1) or moderate-to-severe (PSS2-PSS3) neurological symptoms, respectively. Twelve children developed respiratory depression. No seizures and no fatality were reported. All symptomatic children recovered within 24 h. The ingested IR-tramadol dose was positively correlated with the PSS (  < .0001). Using a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve approach (area under the curve, 0.92;  < .001), ingestion of ≥7.4 mg/kg IR-tramadol was appropriate to recommend hospital referral (sensitivity, 100% [95% confidence interval (CI), 85-100]; specificity, 73% [95% CI, 64-80]; predictive positive value, 39% [95% CI, 35-57]; negative predictive value, 100% [95% CI, 96-100]). Children who ingested <7.4 mg/kg IR-tramadol developed no (  = 68) or minor (  = 22) neurological symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Despite increasing tramadol prescriptions in adults during the study period in France, oral exposure to IR-tramadol in ≤6-year-old children was rare but possibly responsible for severe toxicity. Children with no underlying disease and concomitant medication ingesting <7.4 mg/kg IR-tramadol alone could be observed at home. However, given the observed variability in the onset of seizures after tramadol ingestion, which can occur at ingested tramadol doses below 7.4 mg and even at therapeutic doses, parents or guardians should be specifically warned about the risk of seizures.

OBJECTIVE: To compare potential risk factors for the diagnosis of psoriatic arthritis (PsA), psoriasis (PsO), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), and ankylosing spondylitis (AS). METHODS: Four parallel case-control studies were conducted within The Health Improvement Network using data between 1994 and 2015. Patients with PsA, PsO, RA, or AS were identified using validated code lists and matched to controls on age, sex, practice, and year. Risk factors were selected in the time prior to diagnosis. Multivariable logistic regression models were constructed for each disease using automated stepwise regression to test potential risk factors. RESULTS: Patients with incident PsA (n = 7594), PsO (n = 111,375), RA (n = 28,341), and AS (n = 3253) were identified and matched to 75,930, 1,113,345, 283,226, and 32,530 controls, respectively. Median diagnosis age was 48 (IQR 38-59), 43 (IQR 28-60), 60 (IQR 48-71), and 41 (IQR 32-54) years, respectively. In multivariable models, there were some shared and some differing risk factors across all 4 diseases: PsA was associated with obesity, pharyngitis, and skin infections; PsA and PsO were associated with obesity and moderate alcohol intake; PsA and AS were associated with uveitis; and PsA and RA were associated with preceding gout. Both RA and AS were associated with current smoking, former moderate drinking, anemia, osteoporosis, and inflammatory bowel disease. All shared former or current smoking as a risk factor; statin use was inversely associated with all 4 diseases. CONCLUSION: Shared and different risk factors for PsA, PsO, RA, and AS were identified. Statin use was inversely associated with all 4 conditions.

BACKGROUND: Hospitalization in Parkinson's disease (PD) is associated with reduced quality of life, caregiver burden and high costs. However, no large-scale studies of rate and causes of hospitalizations in patients with PD have been published. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the rate and reasons for hospitalization and factors associated with hospitalization among people with PD compared to the general population. METHODS: We examined rate and causes of admission in PD patients and matched controls in The Health Improvement Network from 2006 to 2016. Multivariable Poisson regression was used to explore the effects of age, gender, social deprivation, urbanicity and practice geographic location on hospitalization. RESULTS: In the longitudinal data from 9,998 newly diagnosed individuals with PD and 55,554 controls without PD aged ≥50 years, 39% of PD patients and 28% of controls were hospitalised over a median follow-up of 5.1 years. The adjusted incidence rate ratio (IRR) of hospitalization in PD compared to controls was 1.33 (95% CI:1.29-1.37) and rose with increased follow-up duration. Hospitalization rate was overall higher in the older age groups, but the adjusted IRR of hospitalization compared to controls was highest in the youngest age group. PD patients were more often admitted with falls/fractures, infections, gastrointestinal complications, PD, dementia, psychosis/hallucinations, postural hypotension, electrolyte disturbances, stroke and surgical procedures and slightly less often due to hypertension. CONCLUSION: People with PD have an increased hospitalization rate compared to controls, particularly in the younger age groups, and it increases with longer disease duration. The complications of motor and non-motor features of PD are amongst the main reasons for admission, some of which could be managed preventatively to avoid admissions.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Metabolically healthy obesity (obesity without any metabolic abnormality) is not considered to be associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. We examined and quantified the association between metabolically healthy overweight/obesity and the risk of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a British primary care population. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective population-based cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 4,447,955 of the 5,182,908 adults in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database (United Kingdom, 1995-2015) with a recorded body mass index (BMI) at the time of registration date who were free of CKD and cardiovascular disease. EXPOSURE: 11 body size phenotypes were created, defined by BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obesity) and 3 metabolic abnormalities (diabetes, hypertension, and dyslipidemia). OUTCOME: Incident CKD defined as a recorded code for kidney replacement therapy, a recorded diagnosis of CKD, or by an estimated glomerular filtration rate of<60mL/min/1.73m for≥90 days, or a urinary albumin-creatinine ratio>3mg/mmol for≥90 days. RESULTS: Of the 4.5 million individuals, 1,040,921 (23.4%) and 588,909 (13.2%) had metabolically healthy overweight and metabolically healthy obesity, respectively. During a mean follow-up interval of 5.4±4.3 (SD) years, compared with individuals with a metabolically healthy normal weight (n=1,656,231), there was a higher risk of incident CKD among those who had metabolically healthy overweight (adjusted HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.28-1.33]) and metabolically healthy obesity (adjusted HR, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.62-1.70]). The association was stronger in those younger than 65 years of age. In all BMI categories, there was greater risk of incident CKD with a greater number of metabolic abnormalities in a graded manner. LIMITATIONS: Potential misclassification of metabolic status due to delayed diagnosis and residual confounding due to unmeasured factors. CONCLUSIONS: Overweight and obesity without metabolic abnormality are associated with a higher risk of incident CKD compared with those with normal body weight and no metabolic abnormality.

BACKGROUND: Miscarriages affect up to a fifth of all pregnancies and are associated with substantial psychological morbidity. However, their relationship with cardiometabolic risk factors is not well known. Therefore, in this study we aimed to estimate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors including diabetes mellitus (type 1 or 2) and hypertension in women with miscarriage compared to women without a record of miscarriage. METHODS: A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted using IVQIA Medical Research Data UK (IMRD-UK) between January 1995 and May 2016, an anonymised electronic health records database that is representative of the UK population. A total of 86,509, 16-50-year-old women with a record of miscarriage (exposed group) were matched by age, smoking status, and body mass index to 329,865 women without a record of miscarriage (unexposed group). Patients with pre-existing hypertension and diabetes were excluded. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for diabetes and hypertension were estimated using multivariable Poisson regression models offsetting for person-years follow-up. RESULTS: The mean age at cohort entry was 31 years and median follow up was 4.6 (IQR 1.7-9.4) years. During the study period, a total of 792 (IR 1.44 per 1000 years) and 2525 (IR 1.26 per 1000 years) patients developed diabetes in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. For hypertension, 1995 (IR 3.73 per 1000 years) and 1605 (IR 3.39 per 1000 years) new diagnoses were recorded in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. Compared to unexposed individuals, women with a record miscarriage were more likely to develop diabetes (aIRR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.15-1.36; p<0.001) and hypertension (aIRR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.12; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS: Women diagnosed with miscarriage were at increased risk of developing diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Women with history of miscarriage may benefit from periodic monitoring of their cardiometabolic health.

BACKGROUND: Early detection of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDA) may improve survival. We previously developed a clinical prediction model among patients with new-onset diabetes to help identify PDAs 6 months prior to the clinical diagnosis of the cancer. We developed and internally validated a new model to predict PDA risk among those newly diagnosed with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study in The Health Improvement Network (THIN) (1995-2013) from the UK. Eligible study patients had newly diagnosed IFG during follow-up in THIN. The outcome was incident PDA diagnosed within 3 years of IFG diagnosis. Candidate predictors were factors associated with PDA, glucose metabolism or both. RESULTS: Among the 138 232 eligible patients with initial IFG diagnosis, 245 (0.2%) were diagnosed with PDA within 3 years. The median time from IFG diagnosis to clinical PDA diagnosis was 326 days (IQR 120-588). The final prediction model included age, BMI, proton pump inhibitor use, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, alanine aminotransferase and alkaline phosphatase. The model achieved good discrimination [area under the curve 0.71 (95% CI, 0.67-0.75)] and calibration (Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test P > 0.05 in 17 of the 20 imputed data sets) with optimism of 0.0012662 (95% CI, -0.00932 to 0.0108771). CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated a sequential PDA prediction model based on clinical information routinely available at the initial appearance of IFG. If externally validated, this model could significantly extend our ability to detect PDAs at an earlier stage.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the incident risk of RA in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and to explore the role of glycaemic control and associated therapeutic use in the onset of RA. METHODS: This study was a retrospective cohort study using patients derived from the IQVIA Medical Research Data (IMRD-UK) database between 1995 and 2019. A total of 224 551 newly diagnosed patients with T2DM were matched to 449 101 patients without T2DM and followed up to assess their risk of RA. Further analyses investigated the effect of glycaemic control, statin use and anti-diabetic drugs on the relationship between T2DM and RA using a time-dependent Cox regression model. RESULTS: During the study period, the incidence of RA was 8.1 and 10.6 per 10 000 person-years in the exposed and unexposed groups, respectively. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was 0.73 (95% CI 0.67, 0.79). In patients who had not used statins in their lifetime, the aHR was 0.89 (95% CI 0.69, 1.14). When quantifying the effects of glycaemic control, anti-diabetic drugs and statins using time-varying analyses, there was no association with glycaemic control [aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.99, 1.00)], use of metformin [aHR 1.00 (95% CI 0.82, 1.22)], dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors [DPP4is; aHR 0.94 (95% CI 0.71, 1.24)] and the development of RA. However, statins demonstrated a protective effect for progression of RA in those with T2DM [aHR 0.76 (95% CI 0.66, 0.88)], with evidence of a duration-response relationship. CONCLUSION: There is a reduced risk of RA in patients with T2DM that may be attributable to the use of statins.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The epidemiology of autoimmune liver disease (AILD) is challenging to study because of the diseases' rarity and because of cohort selection bias. Increased incidence farther from the Equator has been reported for multiple sclerosis, another autoimmune disease. We assessed the incidence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC), primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC), and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) in relation to latitude. METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study using anonymized UK primary care records from January 1, 2002, to May 10, 2016. All adults without a baseline diagnosis of AILD were included and followed up until the first occurrence of an AILD diagnosis, death, or they left the database. Latitude was measured as registered general practice rounded down to whole degrees. RESULTS: The cohort included 8,590,421 records with 53.3 × 10 years of follow-up evaluation from 694 practices. There were 1314 incident cases of PBC, 396 of PSC, and 1034 of AIH. Crude incidences were as follows: PBC, 2.47 (95% CI, 2.34-2.60); PSC, 0.74 (95% CI, 0.67-0.82); and AIH, 1.94 (95% CI, 1.83-2.06) per 100,000 per year. PBC incidence correlated with female sex, smoking, and deprivation; PSC incidence correlated with male sex and non-smoking; AIH incidence correlated with female sex and deprivation. A more northerly latitude was associated strongly with incidence of PBC: 2.16 (95% CI, 1.79-2.60) to 4.86 (95% CI, 3.93-6.00) from 50°N to 57°N (P = .002) and incidence of AIH: 2.00 (95% CI, 1.65-2.43) to 3.28 (95% CI, 2.53-4.24) (P = .003), but not incidence of PSC: 0.82 (95% CI, 0.60-1.11) to 1.02 (95% CI, 0.64-1.61) (P = .473). Incidence after adjustment for age, sex, smoking, and deprivation status showed similar positive correlations for PBC and AIH with latitude, but not PSC. Incident AIH cases were younger at more northerly latitude. CONCLUSIONS: We describe an association in the United Kingdom between more northerly latitude and the incidence of PBC and AIH that requires both confirmation and explanation.